MOIRAI-Decentralised prediction market
Introduction
A prediction market is a form of financial or information market, where the participants trade through
contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events . It is based on the "efficient market hypothesis". In a truly efficient prediction market, the market price will be the best predictor of the market, and no combination of other information can be used or applied to improve the market- generated forecasts. However, it is unlikely that prediction markets are trully efficient. A prediction market can be defined as: "A place where individuals can wager on the future events’ outcomes."
contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events . It is based on the "efficient market hypothesis". In a truly efficient prediction market, the market price will be the best predictor of the market, and no combination of other information can be used or applied to improve the market- generated forecasts. However, it is unlikely that prediction markets are trully efficient. A prediction market can be defined as: "A place where individuals can wager on the future events’ outcomes."
These markets are regarded as an ‘exchange’ where an organization or an individual can tap into similar to the practice of the financial markets, assign a traded price to a belief about the future. They are considered as a disruptive innovation that has yet to penetrate mass investor audience disruptive prediction market platform needs to be universal, decentralized and permissionless. In essence, a prediction market is a vehicle for aggregating information about a future event’s expected outcome. Prediction markets frame themselves as questions about the future, unlike traditional financial markets. For instance, in the context of US elections, the question will be "Which party will win the U.S. presidential election in 2020?" Here, shares are divided among predefined options (e.g. Democratic, Republican or other) with corresponding share prices equal to €1. The share price of each option reflects its probability of occurrence. Individuals have an incentive to purchase shares, which reflect their beliefs about the outcome. The winning option shares become redeemable for €1, while the other shares become worthless.
The Power and Potential of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are useful for estimating the expectation of the market, regarding certain events. However these markets have their limitations; as for predicting the future, they may be beneficial as a supplement to other primitive mechanisms such as politically appointed panels of experts, opinion of surveys, holding committee meetings, and hiring consultants. In the private sector, there is an increasing interest in the prediction markets, growing at a rapid pace.
Figure – 1: How a market predicts3
Types of Prediction Markets
of payoff to the future event can elicit the expectation of the market about the range of different parameters. Prediction markets can be classified with respect to main types of contracts which include winner-take-all, index and spread.
Table –1: Contract types4
Table –2: Contract types’ examples
Applications of the Prediction Market
Over the years, there is a growing number of web-based event markets, which are often run by companies providing a range of gambling and trading services. Some prominent examples include Betfair.com and bet365.com. Prediction markets have been applied in various domains successfully. Prediction markets were used mostly for medium and short-term forecasts. However, these markets have a huge potential in long-term forecasting and evaluation. Following are some of the previous fields of application for medium and short-term forecasts:
Table – 3: Application of Prediction Markets 5
Market Size and Projections
Prediction markets marked a significant surge over the last several decades due to their superior ability to effectively aggregate all available information, relevant to the outcome of an event. These markets have already been implemented successfully for a variety of applications and have an immense potential. The companies in this field have thousands of active traders generating millions of dollars of trading volume, where profits are growing exponentially. However, majority of the companies are still not exploiting the full potential of the prediction markets. The total value of the prediction and betting market is difficult to estimate due to lack of consistency in how it is regulated in different parts of the world. The betting makes up about 30% to 40% of the global online gambling market. The global prediction market is expected to reach $ 37.78 billion by 2023. Significant growth in the global prediction market's size is expected. Apart from centralized online companies, which record billions in daily trading volume, the companies related to the decentralized environment are projected to grow at a significant pace.
Figure –2. Global Prediction Market Size (2014-2023)
Moirai’s Objectives
Moirai aims to become a disruptive force in various global markets systematically. These markets include finance, insurance, sports betting, political event prediction, and information ones and local economies. Its platform is based on a decentralized network. Following are Moirai’s main objectives
- To create new economic opportunities and more efficient ways for crowd sourcing and
aggregating information through customized information searching. The power of search is inclusive and decentralized. - To build an efficient and effective forecasting tool by bridging real world events to the blockchain via prediction markets and oracles.
- To establish a global, open prediction market platform and become the standard for predictive assets.
Moirai Ecosystem
The ecosystem of Moirai is based on a global decentralized network, revolving around the prediction
markets. The users in the ecosystem are able to explore and participate in events created by operators and providers. It builds a long-term cooperative operating model, providing an opportunity to compete and innovate as a compensation to the providers. The users also have the ability to earn profit from participating in various events related to prediction. The following table defines the participants within the ecosystem and describes their roles:
markets. The users in the ecosystem are able to explore and participate in events created by operators and providers. It builds a long-term cooperative operating model, providing an opportunity to compete and innovate as a compensation to the providers. The users also have the ability to earn profit from participating in various events related to prediction. The following table defines the participants within the ecosystem and describes their roles:
Table –4: Moirai Ecosystem
Token Trading
The financial working structure of Moirai is based on the use of a cryptographic token system, also known as Moirai Token or the MOI. Likewise other cryptographic currency MOI is also designed as fractionally divisible, interchangeable, and transferable.
Aspects of Liquidity and Instability
Figure -3: Usage of MOI in the Prediction Market Business
Figure –4: Mobile vs Desktop Usage of Application
- Dependability of application on MOI as the central and common mode to opt and
implemented in all activities of the business. - Ensuring the usage of smart contracts of Ethereum by the application of Moirai.
- Conformity with the general Moirai protocol for the discovery and participation in events based on peer networks.
Competitors Analysis
There has been a substantial increase in the creation and progress of prediction markets in recent years. Despite the growth, a certain form of maturity in the markets is observed due to the availability of several applications. Moirai directly competes with blockchain-based prediction market platforms, including Gnosis, Augur, and Stox. The traditional betting exchanges and options markets have offered a centralized platform for predicting outcomes of discreteevents. These platforms have attracted users; however, they are limited to serve broad audiences with respect to their capacity, and subject to excessive regulation.
Tabel -5: Comparative analysis
Timeline for Project Development of Moirai
The main driving force are the users who are ready to invest in the outcome of a future event. Investors interested in financing the event are getting the profit through the operation and execution of that event. In this regard, Moirai has developed the open source technology to execute the business platform across the network and it has established an incentive based model, addressing customers and the investors to participate within.
The components in the timeline for executing the business strategy of Moirai business market venture is listed below to be spread over a period of one year.
- The development of web-based platform or the website for Moirai
- The development of application based on iOS or Android
- Launch of Moirai business market on web and application
- Marketing campaigns
- Improving the existing users
- Expanding the network of potential users and investors in the predictive market
Timeline: Moirai Project Development
Marketing Strategy
The marketing strategy for any business plays a vital role in its success and growth pertaining to profitability. In order to make the new venture of Moirai successful in the prediction industry, there would be required an effective marketing strategy to be designed and implemented. In the prediction business the business strategy often acts as the marketing strategy and so is the case of Moirai. The focus is to align both strategies in the same direction. Generally, the marketing strategy is based on the components including the match of buyers with the sellers and the clarity in the contact statements in the trade10. These components are deemed necessary for the marketing design of Moirai business model and are elaborated below to be incorporated.
The marketing strategy for any business plays a vital role in its success and growth pertaining to profitability. In order to make the new venture of Moirai successful in the prediction industry, there would be required an effective marketing strategy to be designed and implemented. In the prediction business the business strategy often acts as the marketing strategy and so is the case of Moirai. The focus is to align both strategies in the same direction. Generally, the marketing strategy is based on the components including the match of buyers with the sellers and the clarity in the contact statements in the trade10. These components are deemed necessary for the marketing design of Moirai business model and are elaborated below to be incorporated.
Promotion of Digital Platform and Application
make it unclear for the reader to judge in which direction a bet is to be made. There will be clarity often lead towards complexity and point of no return. For instance, Moirai restricts last moment The success of any business depends on the number of users and customers. In case of Moirai, the customers include groups and individuals who invest in Moirai or place a bet regarding a certain event in a given environment. A Higher number of users will provide greater opportunity for the business to be successful. There are many ways to existing users will also target potential customers.
make it unclear for the reader to judge in which direction a bet is to be made. There will be clarity often lead towards complexity and point of no return. For instance, Moirai restricts last moment The success of any business depends on the number of users and customers. In case of Moirai, the customers include groups and individuals who invest in Moirai or place a bet regarding a certain event in a given environment. A Higher number of users will provide greater opportunity for the business to be successful. There are many ways to existing users will also target potential customers.
Figure -5: Basic Features of Marketing Strategy
Figure –6: Moirai expected use of proceeds
It is estimated that the business will generate €2 million in the first year of operations with a profit of €40,000. The net profit margin during the first financial year (2018) would be 2%, which is projected to reach 19% in 2022.
Table –7: Projected Income Statement
Figure –7: Revenues Projection (2018-2022)
Initial Coin Offering -ICO
The crowdsale of Moirai and the token creation process will be organized around smart contracts running on the Ethereum blockchain. Anyone who wishes to support the development of the Moirai Project, may do so by sending contributions to the designated addresses. The contributions will be accepted in the following currencies: Ether -ETH.
MOI Token:
Moirai tokens (MOI) will be implemented as an ERC20-compatible token over the public Ethereum blockchain. Ethereum-based tokens have quickly become the industry-standard for issuing custom digital assets.ERC20-compatibility utilizes powerful infrastructure of the Ethereum blockchain and provides access to its robust development tools, exchanges and wallets. Furthermore, it ensures security and high liquidity of the token’s ecosystem, without a need of running an independent blockchain network. Finally, the ability to deploy trust-less smart contracts allows for transparent and secure way of profit-sharing among token holders in a fully decentralized manner.
Creation
The token creation and distribution process will be organized around Ethereum-based smart contracts. Only 660,000,000 MOI tokens will be issued.
Team‘s MOI coins will be locked by a smart contract:
66,000,000 of token supply will be allocated to Moirai’s development team. The coins dedicated to the team will be locked by a smart contract for 12 months. This will motivate Moirai team to achieve success and increase MOI coin value.
Website : https://ico.moirai.io/
whitepaper : https://ico.moirai.io/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/11/edited_Full-Whitepaper.pdf
profile bitcointalk : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1184579;sa=summary
Eth Address : 0xa886F31d706CC107eF112D5A648820eBe075d104
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